The initial 2024 ballot shows Biden holding a two-point lead over Trump in a hypothetical rematch, with 43% for Biden, 41% for Trump, 11% undecided, and 5% of voters saying they will probably not vote in the 2024 election. B/C. And in Pennsylvania, Democrats won a vacant seat to secure a 5-2 majority on the state Supreme Court. Friday’s poll showed the generic Republican candidate is up seven points, with 48 percent of the likely U. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Ballotpedia includes comprehensive election information for the largest 100 cities by population, as well as all state legislative, statewide, and congressional races across the nation. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The @FiveThirtyEight generic-ballot polling average with 7 weeks until E-Day: 1998: D+1. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Washington, DC, August 2, 2022. Download the data. 2 point swing. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. U. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Trump. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Nov. Download the data. July 15, 2016 Sept. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. In testing this on 2018 and 2020 races. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. Democrats won. 7. The generic ballot — which asks respondents whether they’ll vote for the Republican or the Democrat in their congressional district — informs the FiveThirtyEight Senate models in a fashion. We include three types of polls: General Election, Primaries, and Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings for each candidate. Trump. 6 percent to 43. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Specifically, we looked at what would happen if you made a forecast based solely on the partisan lean of a state or district, plus generic-ballot results. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 8. Listen. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2. 5, 2024, when they must finalize their primary ballot. And journalists noticed. 9 percentage points (48. Download. 300 LV. Includes special elections that took place on Nov. 0 percent). 43. Download the data. Polling shows that so far, according to 538's average,. Aug. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Club for Growth (PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. If you followed polls of the generic congressional ballot, you knew as early as summer 2017 that signs pointed to a wave election for Democrats in 2018. Find the latest poll numbers from CNN here. Download. Republicans (R) July October 2018 April July October 36 38 40. ”. Download. The two most recent high quality polls have Rs at anywhere between 38 and 47 % (polls done by YouGov and Quinnipiac). Biden. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. All 2018 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. S. Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. 2024 Elections; Top Stories. The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023. Indicates a polling average for this poll type. 7-10. The faux Democratic generic ballot lead in June, July, and August of 2014 broke hard toward Republicans the minute September hit and voters began paying attention again. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. New Hampshire 1st District - Leavitt vs. 1380 RV. For example, here are the 2020 results. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. 950 RV. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. In November 2023, we made. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. West Siena Biden 37, Trump 28, Kennedy 18, West 5 Biden +9 Michigan: Trump vs. Download. November 21, 2023, 3:58 PM. Latest 2024 Polls; Republican Nomination; GOP Betting Odds; Democratic Nomination; Dem. Download the data. 6 . Polls find Republicans down ballot will perform better if Florida Gov. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. CNN: D 51%, R 42% (D+9) Democrats won a net of 40 seats. 6%, Biden at 45% — in the RCP polling average. True, these sort of. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science, WCVB-TV (Boston) Trump. 2014 Generic Congressional Vote. The U. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Josh Christenson. 10, 2023 The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022 By Nathaniel Rakich Filed under. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. WPA Intelligence. 3. Sep. 748. Generic ballot polling average. 48. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 5 GOP (R) +2. Yes, as you might recall, generic-ballot polls. +1. 0 points. Download the data. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed. According to the RealClearPolitics average, the shift began a month earlier. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7. Even when Democrats were busy crafting and eventually introducing a fairly unpopular health care bill in the middle of 2009, they still held a 3 percentage point lead on the generic ballot for the. (Some of the “national vote” numbers in this table differ slightly from those in 538 ’s record, but the current numbers are all verified on Wikipedia’s website. Candidate is an incumbent. While it’s definitely too early to hang your hat on any 2024 general-election polls, a Selzer & Co. 42. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Keep it simple, please — give me the best forecast you can based on what local and national polls say. 2002: R+0. 9 points on the actual house popular vote in Nov, a 4. 11/18 - 11/19. B. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Republicans (R) +2. SEIU is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Find the latest poll numbers from. YouGov. The latest with redistricting. By Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Meredith Conroy. Trump. Republicans (R) July October 2018 April July October 36 38 40. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Evergreen Principles (super PAC) Evergreen Principles (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. An initiated measure is a proposed law that people collect signatures for to put on the ballot. House and make a. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. House and governor. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 0 percent to 42. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 2018 Generic Congressional Vote. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. S. Biden’s performance across 40 nonpartisan House polls taken since. In fact, in August of 2014, it. S. Overall, Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate are 68-in-100, according to the Deluxe version of our forecast. On average, Democrats trailed by. Several of those maps are being challenged in court as illegal gerrymanders, but none seems like a serious possibility to be overturned before the midterms. 2 percentage points (45. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 5 GOP (R) +2. Democrats enjoyed 42 percent support in the congressional generic ballot on January 23, compared to 43. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Our average gave Democrats an 8. 1% Election Day Nov. Ohio voted to enshrine abortion rights in its state constitution. 22 to Nov. Biden. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Bluegrass Freedom Action (PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. Download the data. Andy Beshear is a Democratic Party candidate for office. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. My thinking/question is this: 538 generic ballot tracker shows Dems up 1. While it’s definitely too early to hang your hat on any 2024 general-election polls, a Selzer & Co. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 8, 2022, versus actual results. Aug. Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research. Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 849 registered voters in the United States from July 5-7, 2022. KEY. 8 percent). A: We collect polls for presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections in addition to presidential approval polls, vice presidential approval polls and congressional generic. By Holly Fuong, Aaron Bycoffe, Humera Lodhi and Nathaniel Rakich. 5Download the data. This owes to both the House and Senate maps being tilted against them . Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Biden vs. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. From 2010 to 2022, an average of 161 statewide ballot measures—53 initiated measures and 108 referred measures—appeared on ballots in even-numbered years. Climate Power is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Republicans (R) +2. News. By Ashley. Thanks for joining us!Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. The next step after Colorado's high court would be the. Democracy Corps is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Of those: The Lite forecast called the winner correctly in 482 of 506. 3. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Republicans (R) +2. 6 percent). 2-point advantage in the national generic ballot, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. In 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, the margin on the generic congressional ballot was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45%. On Election Day the red wave crashed ashore, with the GOP recording. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 4 points. Split Ticket’s calculations showed an R+1. Download the data. Download. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. RCP Poll Average. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Select a state name to see its presidential voting history. For more forecast content, listen to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast and subscribe to our YouTube channel!Shown below is 538 ’s own record ( 2/23/21) of its generic ballot results compared with the actual national vote. The graph below shows how the FiveThirtyEight generic-ballot polling average 2 shifted in the last 90 days of the 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 midterms. Download. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 804: A: July 14-25. Trump. and the generic ballot test, in particular. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Biden has 46 percent or 50 percent of the vote could be the difference between a decisive eight-point victory. Biden and Trump are also virtually tied — Trump at 45. S. As you can see, the president’s party lost. 8 Nov. November 22, 2023, 5:06 PM. Earliest day for independent candidates to circulate and file nominating petitions. Jacobson is a senior correspondent with PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024. 48%. 5 percent for Republicans. 5. 3-5. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. S. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download. 42%. And the generic ballot. /Grinnell College poll conducted Oct. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 2 percentage points (45. Ahead of the U. On Wednesday morning, another generic ballot poll, from Selzer & Co. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead Republicans by 2. A week ago. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 45. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 3,662 registered voters from Oct. A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 0. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. We use numbers to express uncertainty. The last presidential election featured one of the more accurate sets of early polls for this point in the cycle: Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump 46. 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. S. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. Download. 3:16. Filed under 2020 Election. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Polls analyzed. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. On Election Day the red wave crashed ashore, with the GOP recording. 1,500. 68%. Download the data. Ashcroft’s original description of the proposed abortion amendments, which could go on the ballot in 2024 if supporters gather enough voter signatures, would have. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When Kansas voters earlier this month rejected a ballot initiative that would have made it easier for the state legislature to restrict or ban abortion, it was only the. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 59. All 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. Download the data. 22 to Nov. 2 All six of those polling firms have shown a shift toward Democrats. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 78%. Download the data. Generic ballot, 2022. On average, Democrats are running about 4. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download. For example, if 44 percent of voters favored Democrats and 35 percent. 11/18 - 11/19. Download the data. Emerson. The Immigration Hub is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. degree. 300: LV: Aug. Download. June 28, 2022. 2. In October 2014, the generic ballot stood here: Fox: D 45%, R 43% (D+2) CNN: D 49%, R 43% (D+6) (NPR’s last poll of registered voters. Kennedy Harvard-Harris Trump 44, Biden 36, Kennedy 21 Trump +8 General Election. Now, for your. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Six pollsters 1 have released generic ballot polls both before and after the Dobbs decision. Download the data. 538 might feel like a left leaning organization but tbh in my opinion reality has a liberal bias. 2024 Generic Congressional Vote: CNN: Republicans 48, Democrats 47: Republicans +1: 2024 Generic Congressional Vote: Economist/YouGov: Republicans 42, Democrats 43: Democrats +1: Congressional Job. FiveThirtyEight is tracking the 2022 midterm races for U. His predecessor Donald Trump, a member. 2010: R+3. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 2024 Republican Debates. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. News 2024 Presidential Ratings. 6 percent to 43. FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. Trump. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Support for both parties has risen since January 20. Download. 3 percentage points (43. S. Download. And a nice sanity check for the various 538 house models. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Download the data. Published by Pollsters that have a Strong Track Record of Accuracy. With election day approaching, two gubernatorial elections remain to be held before the 2024 general election. The 538 running average of the generic ballot puts Democrats at 46% to Republicans 45%. 3. The Republican Party currently controls the U. Nov. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. Trump. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 6. RealClearPolitics - 2024 Generic Congressional Vote.